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Prediction for CME (2015-08-22T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-08-22T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9157/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-08-24T03:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Aug 23 1230 UTC

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 23-Aug 25 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 23-Aug 25 2015

            Aug 23     Aug 24     Aug 25
00-03UT        3          3          4     
03-06UT        3          5 (G1)     3     
06-09UT        6 (G2)     5 (G1)     3     
09-12UT        5 (G1)     4          2     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     4          4     
15-18UT        4          3          4     
18-21UT        4          3          3     
21-00UT        4          4          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on day one (Aug
23) under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. Day two
(Aug 24) is expected to see G1 (Minor) storms with the arrival of
coronal mass ejections from 21 and 22 Aug.
Lead Time: 14.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-08-23T12:30Z
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