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Prediction for CME (2015-08-22T07:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2015-08-22T07:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9157/-1 CME was not detected at Earth. Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: ---- Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-08-24T03:00Z Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC) Prediction Method Note: Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2015 Aug 23 1230 UTC A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 23-Aug 25 2015 is 6 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 23-Aug 25 2015 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug 25 00-03UT 3 3 4 03-06UT 3 5 (G1) 3 06-09UT 6 (G2) 5 (G1) 3 09-12UT 5 (G1) 4 2 12-15UT 5 (G1) 4 4 15-18UT 4 3 4 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 4 4 4 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on day one (Aug 23) under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. Day two (Aug 24) is expected to see G1 (Minor) storms with the arrival of coronal mass ejections from 21 and 22 Aug.Lead Time: 14.50 hour(s) Difference: ----- Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-08-23T12:30Z |
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